American Bridge 21st Century, one of the nation’s leading Democratic SuperPACs since 2010, put its focus on the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin which helped deliver forty-six electoral votes for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Since November 2019, American Bridge identified 1.5 million voters who supported President Obama in 2008 or 2012 and then flipped for Trump in 2016. American Bridge’s efforts sought to persuade these potential Trump defectors in 77 counties across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for their Swing County Project. Bridge’s innovative program focused on the margins, preventing Trump from running up the score in working-class counties and offsetting the strength Biden would have in urban and suburban communities. That is exactly what happened on Election Day.

Berni Consulting directed the direct mail program for the Swing County Project, building off the storytelling success of the television and digital work done in prior months. Using local “Trump defectors” and local economic and COVID news for context helped to create a “permission structure” for past Trump voters to follow these new defectors in company. In markets that did NOT receive ads and mail, Trump’s support increased. In the end, President-elect Biden did 2% better compared to Hillary Clinton in Obama-Trump counties across Bridge states vs. basically no movement in other rust belt Obama-Trump counties, delivering the margin needed in all three states for the Democratic ticket.